Richard Haas’ column – Attack on Iran is certain, but its outcome is uncertain | रिचर्ड हास का कॉलम: ईरान पर हमला तय, लेकिन इसका अंजाम अनिश्चित है

Richard Haas, former US State Department advisor and CFR President

We are moving towards a turning-point in the Middle East, but we do not know in which direction this turn will take us. Iran has taken the fatal step of directly attacking Israel. Analysts are astonished that Iran did this even though it had no other option. He was beginning to look weak in the eyes of the world.

Till now, Iran’s policy was to take action against Israel without provoking any military response, but now Iran has given Israel an excuse to retaliate. Israel can attack its nuclear sites and military bases or even attack the oil sources that form the backbone of its economy. And Iran knows that Israel is capable of doing this.

Israel would like to attack Iran directly, because it is tired of dealing with its many proxies. The Israeli government also has strong domestic support for this, because it would mean attacking the root of the problem.

Some also believe that an Israeli attack could lead to the collapse of Iran’s current regime. Earlier this week, Benjamin Netanyahu had also said that ‘when Iran is finally free – and that moment will come much sooner than people think – everything will be different.’ However, it is not certain what type of government will be established in Iran in such a situation.

It is more likely that Iran will continue to promote its nuclear program while maintaining its current regime. On October 7—almost a year ago—Hamas’ attack on Israel and subsequent rocket attacks by Hezbollah against Israel made tension in the region almost inevitable.

What is not highlighted enough is the fact that Israel evacuated approximately 60,000 civilians from its northern border to protect its citizens from the risk of attacks, but the ever-increasing firing between Hezbollah and Israel made it possible for these people to return safely. It has made it impossible to return. New fronts in the fighting emerged because a new scenario emerged in the balance of power in Gaza.

Over the past year, Israel has increasingly minimized the military threat posed by Hamas. 10,000 to 20,000 Hamas fighters have been killed, and many of its leaders have either been assassinated or forced into indefinite hiding in Gaza’s maze of tunnels.

After this, Israel decided that now it could safely focus its attention on the northern border and Hezbollah. What Israel has achieved so far against Hezbollah is also impressive. By detonating pagers and walkie-talkies and then carrying out targeted bombings, Israel has eliminated Hezbollah’s high command, including Hassan Nasrallah, who had led the group for three decades.

The mistake made by Israel’s intelligence system on October 7 proved very costly for it and the entire region. But the Israeli security apparatus has since revived its reputation by demonstrating its ability to take decisive action by obtaining accurate intelligence about the enemy in attacks against Hezbollah. After dealing with Hezbollah, Israel also carried out ground incursions into Lebanon.

How far this struggle will go and for how long it will continue is not decided and its objective is also not clear. It is impossible to completely destroy Hezbollah, and occupying a portion of Lebanon would not be a very wise move. It is not clear where all this will end. Even if one can sympathize with what Israel did in Lebanon, one can still criticize what it did in Gaza.

Like Hezbollah, Hamas is also an Iran-backed terrorist organization that wants the destruction of Israel, but there is a lot of difference between the two. Hamas is a national liberation movement supported by the Palestinians. In contrast, Hezbollah is purely an instrument of Iranian foreign policy, having nothing to do with the aspirations of the Lebanese or Palestinian people.

(© Project Syndicate)