Column by Shekhar Gupta- This time the strategy in elections seems to have changed | शेखर गुप्ता का कॉलम: इस बार चुनावों में बदली नजर आई रणनीति

Shekhar Gupta, Editor-in-Chief, ‘The Print’

While reading the writings written on the walls during the Haryana Assembly elections this time, I was surprised by the absence of some things in them. For example, the face and name of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the promises made by him were nowhere to be seen. Neither ‘Modi’s guarantee’, nor ‘Modi’s trust.’

This time BJP’s election slogan was – ‘Trust from the heart, BJP again’. This seems pale in view of the high standards the party has set for itself in coining slogans. And as some party workers, in a separate conversation during a meeting, said about this slogan, ‘Tuk bhi nahi milti!’

But it is not that Modi was completely missing. All that happened was that his picture was not prominent on the party’s posters and pamphlets. In most of the cases, the photograph of the candidate of the constituency was prominent. This is almost the situation of 2014 assembly elections.

During that time, I had written something similar about the Congress candidates in my same column. This time the equation has reversed, but in bits and pieces. At that time the Congress candidates had completely isolated the Gandhi family.

The face of Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini also appeared in the top right corner of the posters in a smaller size than the candidate’s photograph. Saini was made the chief minister just a month before the Lok Sabha elections, which began in April, as the party belatedly realized that Manohar Lal Khattar, who had been made chief minister for two consecutive terms, had become unpopular.

Saini had another face seen on the posters, which most of us do not recognise. This was Mohanlal Badoli. The state president of the party, who has been appointed to this post in an effort to compensate for the losses suffered after the setback in the Lok Sabha elections. The party had to lose 5 out of 10 seats in the state in the Lok Sabha elections. Badoli was also among the losers, from Sonipat. Despite this he was given promotion. He is a Brahmin.

After winning elections twice in a row without citing loyal caste alliances, the BJP took care of the basics. The upper castes and Punjabis (mostly from families who came as refugees during the partition) remained its main base.

Most of these people are settled along the Grand Trunk Road, where most of the urban constituencies are also located and from where the BJP won most of the seats in the 2014 and 2019 assembly elections. Jats have the smallest population in this area, who were isolated by the party.

If the BJP has to win the elections for the third time or at least win so many seats that the result is a hung assembly and it can play its game, then it will have to win the maximum number of seats along the GT Road.

Even in the 2014 and 2019 assembly and Lok Sabha elections, BJP did not have to showcase its caste base. She could consider him a sure thing for her as long as two things worked. One was Hindutva nationalism, and the other was the ‘Namo’ factor.

These two were synonymous. Hence, BJP achieved majority in 2014 by winning 47 seats in the 90-seat assembly. To understand why this was so dramatic, we have to note that before that the BJP had won the maximum number of 16 seats in Haryana in 1987. Most of these seats were from urban constituencies situated along the GT Road.

Due to the rise of Narendra Modi, BJP was able to win rural Haryana and especially the Jats. The Jats vote there is only 22 percent, but due to their political-social influence they punch above their weight. But at one point BJP decided that its work would be successful even without Jats.

So, this community was sidelined during his first term. In the second term, it was outsourced through Dushyant Chautala, a great grandson of Devi Lal. Dushyant separated from his jailed grandfather Om Prakash Chautala’s Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and formed his own Jananayak Janata Party (JJP). But this move backfired and the Jats, deeply angry at being sidelined, joined hands with the Congress and especially its leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda. Its effect was visible on the results of 2024 Lok Sabha elections, BJP lost all the Jat/rural/Dalit dominated seats, but won in most of the urban areas. It is noteworthy that she lost on both the seats reserved for SC. This was the reason why the party accepted it as the most important writing on the wall regarding this election campaign. Among the banners on which the face of the party candidate is the largest, and the faces of the Chief Minister and the State Party President are the second largest, Modi’s face was the smallest. As if the BJP wants to avoid blaming him for the adverse outcome of this election, and yet wants to garner votes in his name. All the factors which used to be important for Haryana’s politics – caste, familyism, and defection – all these factors were dominated by Modi, but now all these factors have returned.

Return of old equations: Due to the rise of Narendra Modi, BJP was able to win rural Haryana and especially the Jats. Whatever was important for Haryana’s politics – caste, nepotism and defection – all these factors had been dominated by Modi, but now these factors have returned. (These are the author’s own views)