Abhijit Iyer Mitra’s column – How uncontrollable the situation will become depends on Iran | अभिजीत अय्यर मित्रा का कॉलम: हालात कितने बेकाबू होंगे, यह ईरान पर निर्भर करता है

Abhijit Iyer Mitra, Senior Fellow, IPCS ​​​​​​​

Iran violated an important principle of war strategy—that of never getting involved in the game directly. If we look at the attacks carried out by Israel so far, be it the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniye in Tehran or the pager and walkie-talkie blasts in Lebanon – Israel has not claimed responsibility for any of them. The rules of the game dictate that to avoid full-scale war, unproven attacks must be responded to with unproven means.

Then why did Iran feel the need to break the rules and launch a major attack on Israel? The reason for this is his nervousness. The first step taken in case of attack is to disperse the leadership. That’s why when 9/11 happened, President Bush was moved to a different location, Vice President Cheney was moved to a different location and other members of the Cabinet were moved to different locations.

This is done so that everyone does not come under attack simultaneously. But on September 17, when about 5,000 pistols exploded simultaneously in Lebanon, Hezbollah organized a mass burial the very next day, where their security forces and leaders gathered. This time there was an explosion in a walkie-talkie and some more members of Hezbollah were killed.

Anyone could have thought that now Hezbollah would avoid gathering its leaders at one place? But no. He gathered the entire leadership of his elite Special Mission Force, Ridwan, into a room, which was immediately bombed by an Israeli aircraft, killing everyone. Despite this, a meeting of the entire high command including Hassan Nasralla was called and that meeting was also attacked with a bomb, in which Nasralla was killed.

The fact that Iran had to openly attack Israel shows that Hezbollah’s capabilities were so diminished that Iran was forced to intervene. This is what Israel wanted so that it could get a solid excuse to attack Iran directly. So what will Israel do now?

Initially the Israeli leadership indicated that it was going to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. But under American pressure, it is now planning to target its leadership along with its oil centers. Israel has also said that if there is a retaliatory attack, nuclear facilities will be bombed. This is to put the responsibility of escalating the fight on Iran. Iran has been publicly informed that its nuclear facilities are on target.

Three ways to do this are being discussed. The first is that all Israeli submarines are now heading towards the Arabian Sea. Second, negotiations are being held with the Saudis and the Emirates for access to their airspace and possibly their refueling aircraft.

The concern here was that Iran would consider this a joint attack by Saudi-Emirates-Israel and would attack both Arab countries in return. To avoid this, a third route is being cleared – Syrian airspace. Israeli Air Force jets are destroying Syrian air defenses throughout southern Syria. Iraqi defenses were not considered critical and therefore were not harmed, even though the attack would likely pass through Iraqi territory and then return home over Saudi Arabia.

The war is almost certain to shock oil prices. But like the beginning of the Ukraine war, this phase will last for a month or two and then subside. The real escalation will occur if Iran chooses to retaliate. Iran’s long-range attacks do not achieve much. But if Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear plants, it would mean massive radiation in the Middle East, far greater than Chernobyl. But this would also mean the end of Iran’s nuclear program.

On the other hand, the scientists and materials that survived the attack could be used to rapidly build weapons and Iran could declare itself a nuclear power within a few months with the help of Russia or China.

Given the way the West has isolated Russia, the Russians will not let this opportunity slip away. To what extent things will go out of control depends on Iran. But people generally do not take wise decisions when they are nervous.

Iran’s long-range attacks do not achieve much. But if Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear plants, it will mean massive radiation in the Middle East. This will also be the end of Iran’s nuclear program. (These are the author’s own views)