Abhay Kumar Dubey’s column – Why couldn’t the Congress’s ‘wind’ stop the BJP? | अभय कुमार दुबे का कॉलम: कांग्रेस की ‘हवा’ भाजपा को आखिर क्यों नहीं रोक पाई?

Abhay Kumar Dubey, Professor at Ambedkar University, Delhi

Congress was assuming that the script of Haryana elections was being written by its own hands. He was sure that the film based on this script would prove to be a superhit on the day of election results. But, as they say, no one knows whether the film will be a hit or a flop.

However, Haryana elections are a big lesson. Especially for those who, on the basis of numerical strength and social status, make a name for themselves through tremendous noise in the election campaign. But there is no guarantee that their wind will turn into victory.

In the elections of Haryana, the Jat community has played the same role as the Yadav community has been playing in the politics of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Better performance than before, but far from electoral victory. The same fate that befell Tejashwi’s party in Bihar and Akhilesh’s party in Uttar Pradesh, has befallen Congress in Haryana.

The second lesson is for those who once again made the mistake of trusting exit polling agencies. The question is, why did these people trust the words of these agencies which failed in the Lok Sabha elections?

In fact, the exit polls were saying exactly what the dominant community of Haryana was saying or wanting. The predictions of both coincided, and its impact was so strong that the confidence of winning the elections within the BJP itself weakened. What’s more, an agency had shown Congress to be far ahead of BJP in every section of the society. The effect of this was that BJP spokespersons started appearing frightened on media platforms.

The third lesson is for those political forces who consider the voters of the Dalit community as their hostage-votes. In this matter, they do not hesitate in insulting the leaders of this constituency, and in the end they lose face. The fourth lesson is for political commentators like me, who, despite their maturity, get caught up in the noise and so-called wind, change their initially balanced opinion and then appear to repent later.

BJP has won the elections. But does she know exactly why she won? Congress has lost the elections. But does she know clearly why she lost? One big reason clearly seems to be that the superficially effective social alliance of Jat-Dalit-Muslim created by Congress did not work 100%. A part of Dalit votes has definitely migrated to BJP.

The Dalits who voted for BJP considered themselves non-Jat. The trend of OBC community also seems to be in favor of BJP. The campaign to break Jat dominance under the leadership of BJP, which started ten years ago, is still going on. This is perhaps a punishment for the Congress strategy under which the party’s ticket distribution (72 out of 90) clearly bore the stamp of Hooda’s choice.

During the election campaign, this concern was repeated a lot that even though there is a tussle in the Congress between Kumar Selja and Bhupinder Singh Hooda, but when the public is adamant on making the Congress win the elections, then this internal division will not make any difference. But the reality was that the public refused to vote unilaterally. According to the Election Commission, in this closely fought election, till 3 pm, both the national parties had got almost equal number of votes (between 39 to 40 percent).

Local dynamics went in favor of BJP in some constituencies, and in favor of Congress in others. Given the nature of our election system, sometimes a party lags behind in seats even if it gets half-a-percent more votes.

In Haryana, Congress candidates won by huge margins (one-and-a-half lakh votes) in Muslim-dominated areas. Perhaps that is why the vote percentage of Congress was close to that of BJP, but it was not as capable of winning seats.

On the other hand, BJP failed in its campaign to form government in Jammu and Kashmir. It was not able to consolidate votes at all in the Valley, and it did not get the expected support in Jammu either. If BJP had given full statehood status to Kashmir as promised a year or two ago, it could have strengthened its claim by securing a big victory (35-36 seats) in Jammu. Even if BJP had made an alliance with some local power in the valley, it would have been able to do something there. But, he preferred to keep himself in isolation. This was his big mistake.

On the contrary, as soon as the elections were declared, Rahul Gandhi seized the opportunity and went to Srinagar and formed an alliance with the National Conference. The votes of both together have crossed 33 percent. BJP lagged behind by about nine-ten percent.

BJP had definitely created history by removing part 35A of Article 370, but it could neither rehabilitate Kashmiri Pandits, nor stop the new rise of terrorism in Jammu. Due to the bureaucracy-government that lasted for five years, the political edge of BJP got blunted. Its leaders kept circling around the secretariat with the file tucked away beside them.

What are the reasons for victory and defeat? BJP won, but does it know why? Congress lost, but does it know why? The social alliance that Congress had created between Jat-Dalit-Muslim did not work 100 percent. A part of Dalit votes has also gone to BJP. (These are the author’s own views)